The mobile carrier's "worst fear" was that it would one day be reduced to the same "dumb pipe" status that characterizes its fixed-line kin. But the situation has passed beyond dumb pipe; the carrier is rapidly becoming an obstacle to be avoided or circumvented.

As carriers in the US (e.g., AT&T) move to usage-based pricing, introducing more complexity and uncertainty into the system, and seek in other ways to "nickle and dime" consumers that will become even more true. 

Skype, Vonage, Truphone, Google Voice (though not quite yet) and other VoIP providers hint at a future where carrier voice plans are unnecessary and calls can be made with only a data connection -- the quality isn't quite "there" yet however. In addition, personal hotspots like the one just released by Clear (pictured), the iSpot, or the Clear home + mobile plans similarly promise simplified, ubiquitous connectivity for mutiple devices for less. 

Hypothetically if you lived in a Clear city, such as Seattle, you could pay a single price ($55) for Internet access, as well as access for a range of mobile devices, at home and on the go. That's significantly cheaper than paying for unlimited carrier voice and data, as well as an ISP at home and potentially a dongle for $30 per month for a laptop. Those charges, not counting family plans, could easily run $200 or more on a monthly basis. 

We're also seeing data indicating that argues mobile users are increasingly tapping WiFi networks for faster speeds or to avoid using carrier networks for other reasons. For example, Kineto Wireless recently published data (n=330 US smartphone users) indicating that people were looking to WiFi for better speeds and to save money:

• 90 percent of survey respondents who own smartphones with Wi-Fi capabilities use Wi-Fi weekly.  
• 43 percent of people who own smartphones with Wi-Fi capabilities use the Wi-Fi every day.
• 45 percent of those people use Wi-Fi because it provides easy access to the Internet, and 43 percent use it because it is faster than the cellular network.
• 24 percent say Wi-Fi on their smartphones is annoying because it only works in some locations, reflecting a desire to use Wi-Fi more broadly.
• 30 percent of respondents own a Research in Motion (RIM) smartphone; 27 percent own an Apple iPhone.
• 48 percent use AT&T as their mobile operator; 11 percent are T-Mobile customers. 

What these and other data indicate is that smartphone and mobile device users are seeking out WiFi networks for improved performance and/or to avoid using minutes or incurring data charges. There may come a time in the next five years when people can reduce their overall costs and have broad connectivity for their devices at home and on the go -- all without a traditional mobile carrier relationship. 

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See also: Vonage App Calls Facebook Friends Free