Smartphones to Dominate by 2011

Many of you may have seen reporting on Nielsen's prediction that smartphones would cross the 50% threshold by 2011 in the US market:

In Q3 2009, historically the slowest phone sales quarter, more than 25% of all phones sold were smartphones. Expect Q4 to have more than 40% of the new phones sold be smart devices. This is important to watch as smartphones are on track to be the majority of phones in the U.S. by 2011. Projecting Nielsen data out through 2010, we see smartphones crossing 50% of the market by the middle of 2011, roughly equal to 150 million users.

That's only a year and a half from now.

If correct the implications for everything digital and mobile are quite significant. Most smartphone users access the Internet daily, search a great deal more and generally consumer more content than non-smartphone users. They're also more receptive to advertising. Their increased mobile activity only makes sense because the devices are better and they generally have more generous or unlimited data plans. 

I would be eager to see such a development although I think the Nielsen projection is aggressive. My sense is that the number is going to be closer to 35% in 2011. However, if prices continue like this . . . we'll see lots of smartphone adoption.