People in the analyst community and in the technology press are pretty polarized when it comes to Windows Mobile. One narrative is that Window Mobile is now fatally flawed, hopelessly behind and Microsoft should buy Palm (or otherwise dispose of WinMo). I was more or less in this camp until I saw some of the demo video of 6.5, which seems like a big improvement over 6.1 (which I owned for over a year). However I haven't been "hands on" with 6.5, let alone 7. 

On the other side are WinMo fans and boosters who tout Microsoft's global relationships with OEMs, strong position on the PC, software assets and general balance sheet as evidence that the mobile OS will be a strong player and not an also ran in the smartphone space. In that latter camp would appear to be iSuppli, which published a forecast that argues Windows Mobile will be the number two (after Symbian presumably) player in the smarpthone market on a global basis. 

Here's the company's chart showing the anticipated growth: 

I would argue that neither the detractors nor the boosters are entirely correct. The future cannot be truly predicted. There is no "Windows Mobile" brand that the public knows, hence the "Windows Phone" rebranding. But that has yet to be established. Unless or until it gains traction in the public mind, Microsoft is partly dependent on third parties to succeed:

• Carriers have to subsidize the phones. Any handset over $200 in the US is DOA. 
• Hardware OEMs have to build attractive cases, camera and features around the OS

For its part, Microsoft can (and must) improve the OS and tie it to online services; it can also develop its apps ecosystem to be competitive. However, right now, there are fewer WinMo smartphones in the world in operation than iPhone + iPod Touch devices (30M vs. 50M). So iSuppli's forecast is optimistic in my view.

There's is a lot of work that Microsoft must do, both on the OS and the Windows Phone brand before it will be able the market share numbers iSuppli is predicting.