WinMo 7: Is It Truly 'Do or Die' for Microsoft?

Windows Mobile 7 (and maybe a few other things) are being formally announced today in Barcelona at the Mobile World Congress. As a quick digression, there will be dozens of announcements coming out of the show; most will be of little consequence. But Microsoft supporters and critics alike are waiting to see whether Windows Mobile 7 can surprise, excite and reverse the growing downward marketshare trend that the OS has experienced over the past year.

There's been recent speculation about whether Microsoft might attempt to buy RIM as a way to "get back in the game." It's unlikely however when you consider that RIM is worth about $40 billion and Microsoft's biggest acquisition to date was aQuantive for about $6 billion. While it could be done hypothetically for cash and stock -- Microsoft's cash on hand is about $36 billion -- a bid for RIM would be a desperation move and a very last-ditch effort.

Certainly there's a logic here about the enterprise market that makes sense and is partly driving the rumor. Palm is a better choice (and much cheaper at $1.7 billion) in many respects but Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer reportedly isn't interested. Meanwhile Palm's handsets, introduced to much fanfare, are now languishing essentially.

Redmond, which bought the Danger OS a couple years ago, believes that it still has a shot with WinMo 7, which reportedly won't offer Flash. (We're also waiting for the rumored Microsoft-branded phone that is code-named project Pink.)

Because of Microsoft's cash position and resources -- as well as the strategic imperative to succeed in mobile -- you cannot dismiss the company, really ever. However it will have a big challenge to overcome the mounting skepticism that it can match and catch Apple, RIM and Android with the forthcoming OS upgrade.