Will Mobile IM Eventually Threaten SMS?

AOL put out some interesting IM-related research findings yesterday. Among the data were:

According to the second annual AP-AOL Instant Messaging Trends Survey, many IM users are spending time instant messaging from their cell phones. The survey, which examined instant messaging trends and usage habits among 1,246 IM users, revealed that 25 percent of respondents send IMs from their cell phones, including one in three (32 percent) teens.

Until there's true IM interoperability it won't replace text messaging. Anywhere from 50% to 70% of US mobile users text (to varying degrees). But over the long term IM could potentially replace SMS for mobile users, especially if people shift from text plans to Internet plans (unless they're bundled) as the mobile Internet becomes more important.